1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 11m 10d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 16.77%
Benchmark 12.61%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.78%
Benchmark 17.84%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.69
Benchmark 0.62

Excess Return (annualized)

4.15%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.29%

Information Ratio

0.45
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.33% 19.59%
Sortino Ratio 0.65 0.56
Calmar Ratio 0.39 0.30
Ulcer Index 14.52 14.72
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,299 $-4,149
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,039 $-5,512
Beta to Benchmark 1.18 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.04

Skew

-0.53
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1472 0.0061 0.1411
Duration Factor 0.8882 1.1784 -0.2902
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0297 0.0384 -0.0681
Inflation Factor 0.5057 0.5911 -0.0854
Market Factor 1.2383 0.8645 0.3738
Size Factor 0.1410 0.0950 0.0460
Style Factor 0.0550 0.0058 0.0492
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2053 -0.1785 -0.0268
Yield Curve Factor 0.0054 0.3292 -0.3239

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio 0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution