1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 3m 16d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 16.39%
Benchmark 13.19%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.99%
Benchmark 17.83%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.67
Benchmark 0.65

Excess Return (annualized)

3.20%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.46%

Information Ratio

0.34
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.55% 19.63%
Sortino Ratio 0.63 0.59
Calmar Ratio 0.38 0.31
Ulcer Index 14.54 14.75
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,346 $-4,147
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,102 $-5,509
Beta to Benchmark 1.19 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.57

Skew

-0.53
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1395 0.0091 0.1304
Duration Factor 0.8847 1.1729 -0.2882
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0353 0.0419 -0.0772
Inflation Factor 0.5147 0.6223 -0.1077
Market Factor 1.2412 0.8559 0.3853
Size Factor 0.1343 0.0861 0.0482
Style Factor 0.0547 0.0119 0.0428
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2065 -0.1627 -0.0439
Yield Curve Factor -0.0019 0.3271 -0.3289

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution