1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 8m 15d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 15.50%
Benchmark 11.23%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.61%
Benchmark 17.84%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.65
Benchmark 0.55

Excess Return (annualized)

4.28%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.15%

Information Ratio

0.47
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.02% 19.56%
Sortino Ratio 0.61 0.50
Calmar Ratio 0.36 0.27
Ulcer Index 14.49 14.69
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,259 $-4,149
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-6,986 $-5,512
Beta to Benchmark 1.17 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.27

Skew

-0.49
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1568 0.0117 0.1451
Duration Factor 0.8925 1.1785 -0.2859
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0356 0.0361 -0.0718
Inflation Factor 0.4972 0.5821 -0.0849
Market Factor 1.2341 0.8620 0.3721
Size Factor 0.1321 0.0923 0.0398
Style Factor 0.0550 0.0064 0.0486
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.1908 -0.1737 -0.0171
Yield Curve Factor 0.0057 0.3287 -0.3230

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.92
Benchmark 0.87

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution