1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 2m 25d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 16.72%
Benchmark 13.54%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 23.00%
Benchmark 17.83%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.68
Benchmark 0.66

Excess Return (annualized)

3.17%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.47%

Information Ratio

0.33
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.55% 19.61%
Sortino Ratio 0.64 0.60
Calmar Ratio 0.39 0.32
Ulcer Index 14.54 14.75
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,348 $-4,147
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,105 $-5,509
Beta to Benchmark 1.19 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.60

Skew

-0.52
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1393 0.0097 0.1296
Duration Factor 0.8868 1.1742 -0.2874
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0350 0.0388 -0.0738
Inflation Factor 0.5130 0.6211 -0.1081
Market Factor 1.2402 0.8544 0.3857
Size Factor 0.1366 0.0884 0.0482
Style Factor 0.0527 0.0104 0.0423
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2052 -0.1604 -0.0448
Yield Curve Factor -0.0015 0.3266 -0.3281

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution