1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 4m 5d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 15.92%
Benchmark 12.84%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.97%
Benchmark 17.82%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.65
Benchmark 0.63

Excess Return (annualized)

3.08%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.46%

Information Ratio

0.33
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.50% 19.58%
Sortino Ratio 0.61 0.57
Calmar Ratio 0.37 0.31
Ulcer Index 14.54 14.75
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,342 $-4,143
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,096 $-5,504
Beta to Benchmark 1.19 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.55

Skew

-0.52
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1396 0.0095 0.1301
Duration Factor 0.8822 1.1696 -0.2874
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0346 0.0426 -0.0772
Inflation Factor 0.5196 0.6269 -0.1073
Market Factor 1.2401 0.8544 0.3857
Size Factor 0.1359 0.0874 0.0485
Style Factor 0.0492 0.0087 0.0405
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2118 -0.1654 -0.0464
Yield Curve Factor -0.0029 0.3264 -0.3294

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution