1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 9m 28d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 16.68%
Benchmark 12.02%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.57%
Benchmark 17.81%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.69
Benchmark 0.59

Excess Return (annualized)

4.67%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.14%

Information Ratio

0.51
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 23.96% 19.52%
Sortino Ratio 0.65 0.54
Calmar Ratio 0.39 0.29
Ulcer Index 14.51 14.71
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,249 $-4,143
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-6,973 $-5,503
Beta to Benchmark 1.17 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.23

Skew

-0.49
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1569 0.0103 0.1466
Duration Factor 0.8899 1.1796 -0.2897
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0336 0.0378 -0.0714
Inflation Factor 0.4974 0.5807 -0.0833
Market Factor 1.2338 0.8637 0.3701
Size Factor 0.1351 0.0934 0.0417
Style Factor 0.0579 0.0087 0.0493
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.1916 -0.1738 -0.0177
Yield Curve Factor 0.0036 0.3288 -0.3252

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.91
Benchmark 0.87

Intercept

Portfolio 0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution