1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 24d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 17.16%
Benchmark 13.21%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.88%
Benchmark 17.82%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.70
Benchmark 0.65

Excess Return (annualized)

3.95%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.40%

Information Ratio

0.42
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.40% 19.57%
Sortino Ratio 0.66 0.59
Calmar Ratio 0.40 0.32
Ulcer Index 14.52 14.73
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,321 $-4,145
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,068 $-5,506
Beta to Benchmark 1.18 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.83

Skew

-0.52
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1437 0.0089 0.1348
Duration Factor 0.8871 1.1762 -0.2891
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0318 0.0359 -0.0678
Inflation Factor 0.5127 0.6111 -0.0983
Market Factor 1.2373 0.8564 0.3809
Size Factor 0.1392 0.0914 0.0477
Style Factor 0.0557 0.0101 0.0456
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2036 -0.1658 -0.0377
Yield Curve Factor 0.0004 0.3271 -0.3266

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio 0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution