1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 5m 4d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 14.33%
Benchmark 10.50%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.73%
Benchmark 17.94%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.60
Benchmark 0.52

Excess Return (annualized)

3.83%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.19%

Information Ratio

0.42
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.15% 19.73%
Sortino Ratio 0.56 0.47
Calmar Ratio 0.34 0.25
Ulcer Index 14.45 14.66
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,287 $-4,173
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,023 $-5,544
Beta to Benchmark 1.17 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.34

Skew

-0.49
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1567 0.0129 0.1438
Duration Factor 0.8978 1.1787 -0.2808
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0399 0.0324 -0.0723
Inflation Factor 0.4997 0.5817 -0.0820
Market Factor 1.2334 0.8594 0.3740
Size Factor 0.1277 0.0910 0.0367
Style Factor 0.0591 0.0085 0.0506
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.1832 -0.1698 -0.0133
Yield Curve Factor 0.0057 0.3297 -0.3241

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.92
Benchmark 0.87

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution