1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 7m 25d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 15.01%
Benchmark 11.08%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.65%
Benchmark 17.86%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.63
Benchmark 0.54

Excess Return (annualized)

3.93%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.17%

Information Ratio

0.43
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.07% 19.59%
Sortino Ratio 0.59 0.50
Calmar Ratio 0.35 0.27
Ulcer Index 14.49 14.69
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,268 $-4,154
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-6,998 $-5,519
Beta to Benchmark 1.17 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.26

Skew

-0.49
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1560 0.0117 0.1444
Duration Factor 0.8935 1.1778 -0.2842
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0369 0.0354 -0.0723
Inflation Factor 0.4977 0.5817 -0.0840
Market Factor 1.2342 0.8615 0.3727
Size Factor 0.1331 0.0933 0.0398
Style Factor 0.0553 0.0058 0.0495
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.1914 -0.1741 -0.0172
Yield Curve Factor 0.0051 0.3287 -0.3236

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.92
Benchmark 0.87

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution