1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 1m 20d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 17.33%
Benchmark 13.81%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.87%
Benchmark 17.79%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.71
Benchmark 0.68

Excess Return (annualized)

3.52%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.43%

Information Ratio

0.37
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.35% 19.53%
Sortino Ratio 0.66 0.62
Calmar Ratio 0.40 0.33
Ulcer Index 14.53 14.74
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,320 $-4,136
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,066 $-5,494
Beta to Benchmark 1.19 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.76

Skew

-0.51
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1434 0.0117 0.1317
Duration Factor 0.8858 1.1744 -0.2886
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0342 0.0360 -0.0702
Inflation Factor 0.5126 0.6181 -0.1055
Market Factor 1.2370 0.8534 0.3836
Size Factor 0.1389 0.0902 0.0486
Style Factor 0.0549 0.0113 0.0437
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2032 -0.1597 -0.0434
Yield Curve Factor 0.0004 0.3273 -0.3269

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio 0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution