1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (8y 6m 1d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 14.91%
Benchmark 11.04%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.66%
Benchmark 17.90%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.62
Benchmark 0.54

Excess Return (annualized)

3.87%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.16%

Information Ratio

0.42
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.09% 19.65%
Sortino Ratio 0.59 0.49
Calmar Ratio 0.35 0.27
Ulcer Index 14.47 14.67
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,269 $-4,162
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-6,999 $-5,529
Beta to Benchmark 1.17 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

8.40

Skew

-0.50
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1567 0.0125 0.1442
Duration Factor 0.8971 1.1783 -0.2812
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0388 0.0323 -0.0711
Inflation Factor 0.5008 0.5811 -0.0803
Market Factor 1.2327 0.8594 0.3732
Size Factor 0.1266 0.0906 0.0361
Style Factor 0.0579 0.0074 0.0505
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.1837 -0.1709 -0.0129
Yield Curve Factor 0.0057 0.3296 -0.3238

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.92
Benchmark 0.87

Intercept

Portfolio -0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution