1.5x Equity Accumulation Portfolio

Portfolio Specification

Portfolio Description

Much of the research around accumulation suggest that an investor who is willing to utilize leverage would want ~1.5x exposure to equity. This data seems to assume an investor with a 100% equity portfolio. Therefore, I’ve built a more diversified portfolio that targets roughly a 1.5x beta to global equity and then allows a mean-variance optimizer to add diversifiers with the goal of maximizing diversification. Since equities tend to have low sensitivity to unexpected inflation over long time horizons, I added a constraint to keep the portfolio’s expected inflation beta greater than 0 to avoid taking on large amounts of inflation risk as the means for outperforming.

The result seems to be that we can achieve a similar return over the long-term to a 1.5x levered exposure to market-cap-weighted global equity, but with a lower max drawdown and standard deviation.

Policy Report

Backtest Report

From to (9y 2m 5d)

Returns (annualized)

Portfolio 17.23%
Benchmark 13.69%

Risk (annualized)

Portfolio 22.88%
Benchmark 17.78%

Sharpe (annualized)

Portfolio 0.70
Benchmark 0.67

Excess Return (annualized)

3.53%

Tracking Error (annualized)

9.43%

Information Ratio

0.38
Statistic Portfolio Benchmark
Downside Volatility 24.37% 19.55%
Sortino Ratio 0.66 0.61
Calmar Ratio 0.40 0.33
Ulcer Index 14.54 14.74
Max Drawdown 40.24% 36.65%
VaR (99% Confidence) $-5,321 $-4,135
VaR (99.9% Confidence) $-7,068 $-5,492
Beta to Benchmark 1.19 N/A

Value at Risk (VaR) is calculated off a $10,000 portfolio value.

Growth Charts

Historical Weights

Return Distribution

Excess Kurtosis

7.73

Skew

-0.52
Data Table
Factor Coefficients
Factor Portfolio Benchmark Excess
Credit Factor 0.1428 0.0111 0.1317
Duration Factor 0.8851 1.1733 -0.2881
Emerging (Developed) Factor -0.0366 0.0341 -0.0707
Inflation Factor 0.5122 0.6187 -0.1065
Market Factor 1.2373 0.8535 0.3838
Size Factor 0.1377 0.0886 0.0490
Style Factor 0.0541 0.0113 0.0428
U.S. Tilt (Non U.S.) -0.2036 -0.1596 -0.0439
Yield Curve Factor 0.0003 0.3276 -0.3273

Adjusted R2

Portfolio 0.90
Benchmark 0.86

Intercept

Portfolio 0.00
Benchmark -0.00

Factor Attribution